Sono curiosa di sapere la vs opinione
Ricevo e inoltro, ma soprattutto allego il documento completo.
Ditemi la vs.
°°°°
Amsterdam, May 26, 2008
Flavia,
Hereby I send you a (pre-publishing) copy of Global Resources Analysis (more specific: Volume I - Situation 2008).
To describe the whole report in an one long nutshell line: more people on earth, more purchase power on earth, less energy on earth, less resources on earth, higher prices for everything everywhere, negative economic growth in the whole Western World, lower economic growth in the Emerging World and higher economic growth in the energy and commodities surplus nations of Former USSR, Middle East and Africa.
Demand up, supply equal or down: prices up. When price rises overgrow the economical growth, this always causes stagflation (smaller economies). Stagflation has direct impact on almost all market driven sectors. Stagflation has also a huge indirect impact on the (not direct market driven, but yet by the market economy feed) budgets for government, education, science and healthcare. Smaller economies always have smaller budgets.
The Global Resources Analysis 2008 report will be published in a time where oil prices have rising to around/above $ 130 (even in the traditional due less demand by lower oil prices characterized month May), CNN's her main themes are the Global Food Crisis, the Global Energy Crisis and the Global Credit Crisis, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said that the world must urgently increase food production to ease sky-rocking prices and that he is pledged to set up a task force for this (link to article on bloomberg.com) and China is looking to buy massive agricultural soil for their own food and meat production in both Africa and South America (link to article on ft.com).
Also in a time when politicians don't really understand the energy situation yet: Senator Clinton thinks that there is an energy complot set up by the BigFive (but Exxon for example only controls 3% of global production). Senator McCain thinks that giving a fuel tax holiday will turn global energy markets around (more demand, will give lower prices?).
One line says it all: Indonesia considers leaving OPEC this year, simple by the fact that the nation has become a net importer of oil. An other signal is that the Paris based and always very traditional IEA (International Energy Agency) this week (after even till this year denying such thing as PeakOil) published her first emergency signal focused report, where she forsees 'entering a phase with a new energy world order' due the fact that 'supply no longer will match demand anymore' (link to article on cnn.com).
Both republicans and democrats (but also leaders in other nations) don't understand that's there is a global energy crisis growing in a very fast speed. The nations in Emerging Markets have worked themselves in last years to their place in the economical sun and this accelerates the global energy demand severely. Demand that (more and more) simple outstrips the declining global supply. The oil demand of 'the old world' simple doesn't effect prices anymore as it did: these days the demand out of the new world dictates the prices, and they have the money to buy it.
The leaders of the new energy surplus nations start to understand the consequences of the energy crisis. The leaders of the old energy deficit nations don't understand it yet. When oil majors by oil price levels of above $ 100, their mega profits earned by these high prices spend on re-purchasing own stock instead of investing it in new oil exploration, you know something is going on. The founding family of Exxon has last week criticized the Exxon board on this (link to article on ft.com) with the message: if oil is running out, do what you're paid for: go explore other energy sources: adjust to new situations or give you seat to someone who can do that.
The intensity of the energy problem diverges per global region. China has only 12 days of coal (70% of her energy demand is generated by coal) in stock and their coal inventories decline currently with an 3 days per month rate (link to article on news.com.au), bringing them in serious trouble within 4 months and give sky-rocking coal prices worldwide: they will buy anything for any price.
South Africa is already a full year in severe energy shortages (power distribution is simple not 24/24 per day available). The severe price rise of coal (much more intense than oil) is the forgotten issue in almost all global media. Coal is becoming in rapid speed the most expensive power generation option by the worldwide large increasement of coal fired power plants. Coal generated power will become even more expensive than oil generated power, due the excessive growing global coal demand.
The North Sea oil output peaked at 2.8m barrels a day in 1999, and last year this output was down by almost 60% on that peak. Draining the West European economies again with wealth export to foreign nations by their energy imports, like the energy imports also severely already drain the US economy. Households, companies and governments are not only facing expensive fuel prices, but also strongly (2 till 4 times) increased electrical power prices.
This draft version is already read more than 1.125.000 times since its international RFC release in April, which already have made the Global Resources Analysis the most important and most international used report of 2008. Although the attached version is still this raw/draft version (the final draw up will be done in the next weeks) I hope you'll enjoy it and learn a lot of it in terms of economic and technological perspectives. Supporting website, videochannel and imagechannel are also in production. Just like Volume II (Action Plan 2008) and Volume III (Finance Model 2008).
In the second half of 2008 there will be a world media tour of several teams of economic / political / environmental / development specialists (World Energy Tour), followed by a global seminar (World Energy Summit). In the first half year of 2009 there will be a global broadcasted Live Energy festival. In the second half year of 2009 both the release of a documentary and a feature movie (as the next phase on the An Inconvenient Truth story).
Global Resources Analysis will be published in local languages in almost any country of the world. Several documentary and feature film makers already use it as their script reference. Many universities have put it on their advised booklists for economic, societal and/or governmental programs and use it for special PeakEnergy / PeakEverything lectures and seminars.
Many media are following the successful 'energy special' and 'food special' formula of CNN. Many universities are planning 'global resources', 'global food' and 'global energy' theme days under popular names like 'war on food', 'war on energy' and/or 'war on resources'. Almost every city is initiating a local energy department. Many cities also initiate a food department (like the all already have water departments. Almost each government is planning the initiation of a special dedicated energy department.
The Global Resources Analysis report describes the PeakOil / PeakCoal related issues/effects/dangers for companies, households, economies and thereby governments. What will happen with economies (and therefore also with both households and governments that are funded by these economies) if cheap and abundant oil has gone?
That PeakOil will change completely our current completely on cheap energy based economy is evident. You can start to address both internal (first line) and external (second line) PeakOil related issues/effects/dangers that threatens jobs and investments, just by circulation of this report. Free circulation must be done unchanged. Changed/customized circulation (with an own logo/introduction/foreword and even with own layout/images/text changes could be done low quality digital (fast/cheap) or in high quality print (impressive/representative).
If you want to download a more high resolution copy (which is therefore bigger in digital size) than the attached low resolution copy: a more high res copy can be found on www.induscorp.nl/downloads).
With just a simple circulation/forward of the report, you can reduce the internal/external effects of these PeakOil related issues, impacts and dangers. This way severely downsizing the operational risks outside the organization in times of PeakOil / PeakCoal / PeakEverything (also called PeakX).
Flavia, I hope you like the report, feel free to circulate the report digitally to anyone you wish to do so, or put a copy for download on the web. If you want production of customized layouts/versions, or just the copyrights for own printed/digital customized versions, than contact me so that I can arrange this for you.
See this draft as a RFC (Request For Comments). I really like to receive your feedback/comments (also those of the people you maybe forward this report to), so that the GRA2008 improves itself (grows further) during time.
Regards,
Gijs B. Graafland.
P.S. As an example (of both practical impact and the specific solution) of a by PeakOil caused change: Take a quick look at www.growindus.com (fresh food production within/nearby cities, in/after PeakOil). Global Resources Analysis - Volume I - Situation 2008.pdf
Ditemi la vs.
°°°°
Amsterdam, May 26, 2008
Flavia,
Hereby I send you a (pre-publishing) copy of Global Resources Analysis (more specific: Volume I - Situation 2008).
To describe the whole report in an one long nutshell line: more people on earth, more purchase power on earth, less energy on earth, less resources on earth, higher prices for everything everywhere, negative economic growth in the whole Western World, lower economic growth in the Emerging World and higher economic growth in the energy and commodities surplus nations of Former USSR, Middle East and Africa.
Demand up, supply equal or down: prices up. When price rises overgrow the economical growth, this always causes stagflation (smaller economies). Stagflation has direct impact on almost all market driven sectors. Stagflation has also a huge indirect impact on the (not direct market driven, but yet by the market economy feed) budgets for government, education, science and healthcare. Smaller economies always have smaller budgets.
The Global Resources Analysis 2008 report will be published in a time where oil prices have rising to around/above $ 130 (even in the traditional due less demand by lower oil prices characterized month May), CNN's her main themes are the Global Food Crisis, the Global Energy Crisis and the Global Credit Crisis, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said that the world must urgently increase food production to ease sky-rocking prices and that he is pledged to set up a task force for this (link to article on bloomberg.com) and China is looking to buy massive agricultural soil for their own food and meat production in both Africa and South America (link to article on ft.com).
Also in a time when politicians don't really understand the energy situation yet: Senator Clinton thinks that there is an energy complot set up by the BigFive (but Exxon for example only controls 3% of global production). Senator McCain thinks that giving a fuel tax holiday will turn global energy markets around (more demand, will give lower prices?).
One line says it all: Indonesia considers leaving OPEC this year, simple by the fact that the nation has become a net importer of oil. An other signal is that the Paris based and always very traditional IEA (International Energy Agency) this week (after even till this year denying such thing as PeakOil) published her first emergency signal focused report, where she forsees 'entering a phase with a new energy world order' due the fact that 'supply no longer will match demand anymore' (link to article on cnn.com).
Both republicans and democrats (but also leaders in other nations) don't understand that's there is a global energy crisis growing in a very fast speed. The nations in Emerging Markets have worked themselves in last years to their place in the economical sun and this accelerates the global energy demand severely. Demand that (more and more) simple outstrips the declining global supply. The oil demand of 'the old world' simple doesn't effect prices anymore as it did: these days the demand out of the new world dictates the prices, and they have the money to buy it.
The leaders of the new energy surplus nations start to understand the consequences of the energy crisis. The leaders of the old energy deficit nations don't understand it yet. When oil majors by oil price levels of above $ 100, their mega profits earned by these high prices spend on re-purchasing own stock instead of investing it in new oil exploration, you know something is going on. The founding family of Exxon has last week criticized the Exxon board on this (link to article on ft.com) with the message: if oil is running out, do what you're paid for: go explore other energy sources: adjust to new situations or give you seat to someone who can do that.
The intensity of the energy problem diverges per global region. China has only 12 days of coal (70% of her energy demand is generated by coal) in stock and their coal inventories decline currently with an 3 days per month rate (link to article on news.com.au), bringing them in serious trouble within 4 months and give sky-rocking coal prices worldwide: they will buy anything for any price.
South Africa is already a full year in severe energy shortages (power distribution is simple not 24/24 per day available). The severe price rise of coal (much more intense than oil) is the forgotten issue in almost all global media. Coal is becoming in rapid speed the most expensive power generation option by the worldwide large increasement of coal fired power plants. Coal generated power will become even more expensive than oil generated power, due the excessive growing global coal demand.
The North Sea oil output peaked at 2.8m barrels a day in 1999, and last year this output was down by almost 60% on that peak. Draining the West European economies again with wealth export to foreign nations by their energy imports, like the energy imports also severely already drain the US economy. Households, companies and governments are not only facing expensive fuel prices, but also strongly (2 till 4 times) increased electrical power prices.
This draft version is already read more than 1.125.000 times since its international RFC release in April, which already have made the Global Resources Analysis the most important and most international used report of 2008. Although the attached version is still this raw/draft version (the final draw up will be done in the next weeks) I hope you'll enjoy it and learn a lot of it in terms of economic and technological perspectives. Supporting website, videochannel and imagechannel are also in production. Just like Volume II (Action Plan 2008) and Volume III (Finance Model 2008).
In the second half of 2008 there will be a world media tour of several teams of economic / political / environmental / development specialists (World Energy Tour), followed by a global seminar (World Energy Summit). In the first half year of 2009 there will be a global broadcasted Live Energy festival. In the second half year of 2009 both the release of a documentary and a feature movie (as the next phase on the An Inconvenient Truth story).
Global Resources Analysis will be published in local languages in almost any country of the world. Several documentary and feature film makers already use it as their script reference. Many universities have put it on their advised booklists for economic, societal and/or governmental programs and use it for special PeakEnergy / PeakEverything lectures and seminars.
Many media are following the successful 'energy special' and 'food special' formula of CNN. Many universities are planning 'global resources', 'global food' and 'global energy' theme days under popular names like 'war on food', 'war on energy' and/or 'war on resources'. Almost every city is initiating a local energy department. Many cities also initiate a food department (like the all already have water departments. Almost each government is planning the initiation of a special dedicated energy department.
The Global Resources Analysis report describes the PeakOil / PeakCoal related issues/effects/dangers for companies, households, economies and thereby governments. What will happen with economies (and therefore also with both households and governments that are funded by these economies) if cheap and abundant oil has gone?
That PeakOil will change completely our current completely on cheap energy based economy is evident. You can start to address both internal (first line) and external (second line) PeakOil related issues/effects/dangers that threatens jobs and investments, just by circulation of this report. Free circulation must be done unchanged. Changed/customized circulation (with an own logo/introduction/foreword and even with own layout/images/text changes could be done low quality digital (fast/cheap) or in high quality print (impressive/representative).
If you want to download a more high resolution copy (which is therefore bigger in digital size) than the attached low resolution copy: a more high res copy can be found on www.induscorp.nl/downloads).
With just a simple circulation/forward of the report, you can reduce the internal/external effects of these PeakOil related issues, impacts and dangers. This way severely downsizing the operational risks outside the organization in times of PeakOil / PeakCoal / PeakEverything (also called PeakX).
Flavia, I hope you like the report, feel free to circulate the report digitally to anyone you wish to do so, or put a copy for download on the web. If you want production of customized layouts/versions, or just the copyrights for own printed/digital customized versions, than contact me so that I can arrange this for you.
See this draft as a RFC (Request For Comments). I really like to receive your feedback/comments (also those of the people you maybe forward this report to), so that the GRA2008 improves itself (grows further) during time.
Regards,
Gijs B. Graafland.
P.S. As an example (of both practical impact and the specific solution) of a by PeakOil caused change: Take a quick look at www.growindus.com (fresh food production within/nearby cities, in/after PeakOil). Global Resources Analysis - Volume I - Situation 2008.pdf
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Pietro Zanarini
created this social network on Ning.
Frasi famose e non
1. Prima ti ignorano
2. Poi ridono di te
3. Poi ti combattono
4. Poi tu vinci
Gandhi
C'è un solo bene: il sapere.
E un solo male: l'ignoranza.
Socrate
Se mi fosse possibile fare un regalo alla prossima generazione, darei ad ogni individuo la capacità di ridere di se stesso.
Charles Schulz
In your thirst for knowledge, be sure not to drown in all the information.
Anthony J. D'Angelo, The College Blue Book
Se si trattasse ognuno a seconda del suo merito, chi potrebbe evitare la frusta?
William Shakespeare
La vera grandezza non è nell'aspettare grandi cause per muoversi, ma nel trovare degno motivo di contesa in un fuscello quando è in gioco l´onore.
William Shakespeare
Con chi sta fermo il tempo? Con gli uomini di legge quando sono in ferie, perché essi dormono fra una sessione e l'altra, e non s'accorgono che il tempo si muove.
William Shakespeare
Di rado un'importante innovazione scientifica si fa strada convincendo e convertendo gradualmente i suoi oppositori [...]. Quel che accade, è che gradualmente gli oppositori scompaiono e la nuova generazione si familiarizza con l'idea sin dalla nascita.
Max Planck, La filosofia della fisica.
Did Columbus have a business plan to reach the New World?
Andy Grove, co-founder of Intel, when asked about legendary one-page Intel's business plan
Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Il più grande rischio per la maggior parte di noi non sta nel fissare un obiettivo troppo alto e non riuscire a raggiungerlo, ma nello stabilirne uno troppo basso e ottenerlo.
Michelangelo
Se i giovani si organizzano, si impadroniscono di ogni ramo del sapere e lottano con i lavoratori e gli oppressi, non c'è scampo per un vecchio ordine fondato sul privilegio e sull'ingiustizia.
Enrico Berlinguer
Presta a tutti il tuo orecchio, a pochi la tua voce.
William Shakespeare
Puoi arrivare da qualsiasi parte, nello spazio e nel tempo, dovunque tu desideri.
Richard Bach
La pazienza è amara, ma il suo frutto è dolce.
Jean Jacques Rousseau
Non camminare davanti a me, potrei non seguirti; non camminare dietro di me, non saprei dove condurti; cammina al mio fianco e saremo sempre amici.
Anonimo cinese
Disperare è il più grande dei nostri errori.
Marcel Proust
Non sono più giovane abbastanza per sapere tutto.
Oscar Wilde
E' vero che non sei responsabile di quello che sei, ma sei responsabile di quello che fai di ciò che sei.
Jean Paul Sartre
Chiunque si pone come arbitro in materia di conoscenza, è destinato a naufragare nella risata degli dei.
Albert Einstein
2. Poi ridono di te
3. Poi ti combattono
4. Poi tu vinci
Gandhi
C'è un solo bene: il sapere.
E un solo male: l'ignoranza.
Socrate
Se mi fosse possibile fare un regalo alla prossima generazione, darei ad ogni individuo la capacità di ridere di se stesso.
Charles Schulz
In your thirst for knowledge, be sure not to drown in all the information.
Anthony J. D'Angelo, The College Blue Book
Se si trattasse ognuno a seconda del suo merito, chi potrebbe evitare la frusta?
William Shakespeare
La vera grandezza non è nell'aspettare grandi cause per muoversi, ma nel trovare degno motivo di contesa in un fuscello quando è in gioco l´onore.
William Shakespeare
Con chi sta fermo il tempo? Con gli uomini di legge quando sono in ferie, perché essi dormono fra una sessione e l'altra, e non s'accorgono che il tempo si muove.
William Shakespeare
Di rado un'importante innovazione scientifica si fa strada convincendo e convertendo gradualmente i suoi oppositori [...]. Quel che accade, è che gradualmente gli oppositori scompaiono e la nuova generazione si familiarizza con l'idea sin dalla nascita.
Max Planck, La filosofia della fisica.
Did Columbus have a business plan to reach the New World?
Andy Grove, co-founder of Intel, when asked about legendary one-page Intel's business plan
Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Il più grande rischio per la maggior parte di noi non sta nel fissare un obiettivo troppo alto e non riuscire a raggiungerlo, ma nello stabilirne uno troppo basso e ottenerlo.
Michelangelo
Se i giovani si organizzano, si impadroniscono di ogni ramo del sapere e lottano con i lavoratori e gli oppressi, non c'è scampo per un vecchio ordine fondato sul privilegio e sull'ingiustizia.
Enrico Berlinguer
Presta a tutti il tuo orecchio, a pochi la tua voce.
William Shakespeare
Puoi arrivare da qualsiasi parte, nello spazio e nel tempo, dovunque tu desideri.
Richard Bach
La pazienza è amara, ma il suo frutto è dolce.
Jean Jacques Rousseau
Non camminare davanti a me, potrei non seguirti; non camminare dietro di me, non saprei dove condurti; cammina al mio fianco e saremo sempre amici.
Anonimo cinese
Disperare è il più grande dei nostri errori.
Marcel Proust
Non sono più giovane abbastanza per sapere tutto.
Oscar Wilde
E' vero che non sei responsabile di quello che sei, ma sei responsabile di quello che fai di ciò che sei.
Jean Paul Sartre
Chiunque si pone come arbitro in materia di conoscenza, è destinato a naufragare nella risata degli dei.
Albert Einstein
Nuove dal mondo FLOSS
Barcamp 10 incontri per il popolo della rete
BARCAMP, 10 INCONTRI PER IL POPOLO DELLA RETE
TRIESTE - Sono già dieci, ma porrebbero aggiungersene velocemente molti altri, i "Barcamp" programmati in Italia per radunare il "popolo della rete" nel corso del 2008. Nata negli Stati Uniti come campeggio informale di aggiornamento e incontro per programmatori, blogger e appassionati di tecnologia, la formula del Barcamp si è velocemente diffusa in tutto il mondo. Nel nostro Paese è stata una formula alternativa ale "solite" conferenze e ha radunato centinaia di blogger, esperti e giornalisti su diversi argomenti legati a internet ma anche alla politica e alla cittadinanza nell'era digitale.
Il resto qui
BARCAMP, 10 INCONTRI PER IL POPOLO DELLA RETE
TRIESTE - Sono già dieci, ma porrebbero aggiungersene velocemente molti altri, i "Barcamp" programmati in Italia per radunare il "popolo della rete" nel corso del 2008. Nata negli Stati Uniti come campeggio informale di aggiornamento e incontro per programmatori, blogger e appassionati di tecnologia, la formula del Barcamp si è velocemente diffusa in tutto il mondo. Nel nostro Paese è stata una formula alternativa ale "solite" conferenze e ha radunato centinaia di blogger, esperti e giornalisti su diversi argomenti legati a internet ma anche alla politica e alla cittadinanza nell'era digitale.
Il resto qui
© 2008 Created by Pietro Zanarini on Ning. Create your own social network
La mia impressione è che le "prove collettive", i "trend" non spaventano nessuno: crederemo che la crisi esiste quando ognuno di noi, singolarmente, ci sbatterà il muso. Non un attimo prima!